Business Cycles
In my last post I was excited about the prospects of the Villanova Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament- and rightly so. They won two big games and made it to the Sweet 16. Then they crashed back to earth with a loss to Kansas. What does it mean?
Everything must be kept in context. They lost key team members to graduation and the NBA last year and everybody had low expectations for this year's team. They were young and inexperienced. During the course of the year they showed flashes of coming together, and flashes of raw youth. By the end of the season they were unsure of even making it into the big tournament. But they did. They were the last team to make it in.
In the end, they did better than everyone except themselves expected. They ended with a respectable year and a lot to look forward to.
Starting and growing a business has a lot of similarities to the above scenario. Every time you build and reach a new height, something can happen that sets you back a bit. You lose a key "player" who is tough to replace. You have some unexpected competitive setbacks- maybe a key customer goes out of business or splits for some unclear reason.
Perhaps someone gets sick or goes out on maternity leave or gets hurt on the job. Perhaps a key piece of equipment or technology fails. You get things straightened out because it is your nature to solve problems. You begin to move forward again and start to climb, and then the next surprise comes along.
Business is like that. Ups and downs rather than a continuous movement in one direction. Entrepreneurs need to be prepared for that. With small businesses, 100% redundancy is not possible. But business owners need to have a plan for whatever might come down the pike at them. Who will fill in for whom?
If we need spares, where will we get them? Who are our allies? Who can we count on?
Knowing that every business will have its ups and downs keeps entrepreneurs on their toes. They need to be alert to the downturns and catch them as early as possible. They need to avoid going hog wild when things are going great. That is the time to put some money away for the proverbial "rainy day." That is the time to keep running a tight ship. Cash dribbling away is less noticeable in good times, but just as deadly, because then it won't be there for the bad times.
And in business, you can be at the top of the rankings one week, and in free fall the next. Entrepreneurs can't rest on any laurels, virtual or actual. Too many things can go wrong in an instant.
Steady growth, rather than meteoric, is a reasonable goal. Keeping costs in line is important. Staying close to, and listening to your customers should help you avoid any big negative surprises. It won't necessarily avoid negatives, but they shouldn't be surprises.
Managing risk is critical. Whether you love risk, love the buzz it gives you, or hate it; you need to manage it.
Always consider options and consequences; options and consequences.
Keep everything in context. A big win or two, does not necessarily mean that more will follow. Every "battle" must be fought on its own. You will win some and you will lose some. Remember, it is a long "season."
You don't have to go undefeated. You just need to win enough to stay in the game. Then you will always have a chance.





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